- Tommy Paul will become new American number one if he wins on Sunday
- Lorenzo Musetti is on a 7-1 run on grass this season
- Recommended bet: Paul to win 2-1

Tommy Paul takes on Lorenzo Musetti in a final of the Cinch Championships at Queen's Club that few may have expected at its beginning in a culmination of a tournament that has seen plenty of shocks so far.

Paul is coming into the final in search of his second ATP Tour title of 2024 having won in Dallas in February, only his second career title with his first coming back in 2021, again on the indoor hard courts, that time in Stockholm.

Musetti is also looking for his third ATP Tour title with his two previous successes both coming in 2022, when he won on the clay in Hamburg before going all the way on the hard courts in Naples.

Paul is the 4/11 favourite with LiveScore Bet to win the final, while Musetti is the underdog at 37/20.

The stats

Fifth seed Paul has made it this far without facing another seed, although he has seen off both Jack Draper and Sebastian Korda, who had previously beaten top seed Carlos Alcaraz and third seed Grigor Dimitrov, respectively.

The unseeded Musetti began his tournament with a surprise win over second seed Alex de Minaur and, although he has not faced another seed, his last-four victim Jordan Thompson had previously disposed of Taylor Fritz (4).

Paul, who will become the number-one ranked American male if he triumphs on Sunday, has won three of his four games so far in straight sets, with Draper the only player to have taken him to a decider.

Conversely, Musetti has needed three sets in three of his four matches in reaching the final, disposing of British wild card Billy Harris 6-3 7-5 in his last-eight clash as his only win in straight sets.

Paul has reached his sixth Tour-level final, winning two of his previous five, with one of his three defeats coming in the showpiece in Eastbourne in 2023 when he went down in three sets to Francisco Cerundolo.

Musetti has won both of the finals he has reached at Tour-level and although neither have been on grass, he defeated top-quality opponents in both — beating Carlos Alcaraz in three sets in Hamburg and Matteo Berrettini in Napoli, both in 2022.

This will be the first meeting between the two players.

Prediction

Tommy Paul started the tournament ranked 13th in the world, 17 places better off than his Italian counterpart, although Musetti is set to climb to at least 25th, regardless of the result.

The American has arguably shown more on grass in his career and is understandably the favourite to triumph on Sunday, particularly as he has spent nearly four hours less on court this week and is likely to be the fresher of the two.

Although not famed for his ability on grass — with two first-round exits at Wimbledon on his CV — Musetti can find some form on the fastest surface, reaching the third round at Wimbledon last season, while he made it to the semi-finals of Stuttgart only last week.

The 22-year-old is on a 7-1 run on grass so far this season and having beaten De Minaur in his opening match, he should not be underestimated, particularly with Italy boasting two of the last three winners of this tournament, with Berrettini winning in 2021 and 2022.

However, the fresher Paul has the added motivation of becoming his nation's number one and although Musetti can make life difficult, the American can just outlast his opponent.

Back Paul to win 2-1 at 5/2 with LiveScore Bet.