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England vs South Africa predictions: Springboks to battle through
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Jack Ogalbe
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South Africa head coach Jacques Nienaber will hope to be smiling on Saturday evening
South Africa head coach Jacques Nienaber will hope to be smiling on Saturday evening

- England have won five out of five at the Rugby World Cup 
- South Africa beat England in the 2019 final 
- Recommended bet: South Africa to win by 1-12 points

England and South Africa clash in Saturday's second semi-final at the Rugby World Cup and are familiar foes at the global showpiece.

The Springboks were the 32-12 winners when the pair met in the final of the last World Cup four years ago in Japan and upset hosts France on Sunday, beating Les Bleus 29-28 in the quarter-finals.

They return to the Stade de France to face England, who, despite winning all five of their matches to dominate Pool D before outlasting Fiji 30-24 in the last eight, are yet to truly click.

Boss Steve Borthwick will be banking on his team producing their best performance of the tournament, but the Boks only look to have improved since losing 13-8 to Ireland in Pool B.

Their ability to get the job done, which they also displayed in winning the final Test against the British & Irish Lions 19-16 in 2021, suggests they will have enough to continue their quest for a record fourth Webb Ellis Cup.

Team news

South Africa director of rugby Rassie Erasmus took the unusual step of publicly predicting what he expects England's matchday 23 to be when interviewed on Tuesday and he was probably quite close.

He hinted that he anticipates Kyle Sinckler coming in at tighthead prop for Dan Cole, while he also said Freddie Steward's aerial prowess makes him a candidate to start at full-back in place of Marcus Smith.

Erasmus' predictions are unlikely to be too far away and he and head coach Jacques Nienaber might also stick to a similar formula to the one that helped their side beat France.

Handre Pollard's influence off the bench proved crucial, so they may persist with a five-three split among the replacements to give them greater options should the game open up, therefore reducing the capabilities of their so-called 'Bomb Squad'.

There could be a doubt over captain Siya Kolisi, who was withdrawn against the French with suspected soreness in his knee.

The stats

England are the underdogs in the all-time rivalry, with South Africa having recorded 27 wins to the Red Rose's 16, while there have been two draws.

The Boks have had the better of the rivalry at the Rugby World Cup, winning the finals in both 2007 and 2019 to contribute to a 3-1 advantage in the pair's head-to-head at the global showpiece.

Owen Farrell's 79 points makes him the highest-scorer among current players, with Pollard on 60 and, remarkably, the two teams have both scored 180 points in their five matches so far at the Rugby World Cup.

South Africa have made 632 tackles to England's 610, so both are keen on defence, but the Boks' tally of 26 tries sees them well clear of the Red Rose, who have touched down 19 times.

After losing 13-8 to Ireland in the pool stages, South Africa are looking to emulate their exploits of four years ago when not only did they win the tournament, but they also became the first country to lift the trophy having lost a match – having lost their 2019 opener against New Zealand.

Prediction

Steve Borthwick's England are yet to truly click at the Rugby World Cup
Steve Borthwick's England are yet to truly click at the Rugby World Cup

Erasmus' naming of the England team was arguably part of his strategy to frame his side as the underdogs, but few will be fooled by that ploy, with the reigning champions the clear favourites.

The Springboks are the masters of knockout rugby and their one-point win over France was a further example of their almost innate ability to get the job done.

They did a number on England in the final four years ago, but will be wary that despite being five-from-five, Borthwick's side are yet to click in attack.

Sunday's success over Fiji was the Red Rose's most complete performance to date and they are likely to go toe-to-toe with the Boks both up front and when looking to play running rugby.

The nervous nature of semi-finals mean it will be closer than has been predicted elsewhere, but the holders should be staying in Saint-Denis for another week.

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