- Brentford have won four and lost only one of their last seven PL home games 
- Fewer than four goals have been scored in seven of Aston Villa's last eight away league matches 
- Recommended Bet: Back Brentford or Tie and Under 3.5 goals

In-form Ollie Watkins will lead the attack of European hopefuls Aston Villa against his former club Brentford at Gtech Community Stadium on Saturday.

Watkins is enjoying his most prolific spell in the Premier League with his latest goals firing Villa to victory over Newcastle — a win that left them only six points off the third-placed Magpies having played one game more.

While Unai Emery is on track to bring European football back to Villa Park, Brentford boss Thomas Frank sounded despairing of his attempts to push the Bees to the next level after his side's 2-0 defeat at Wolves last weekend.

It was Brentford's third in a row, while just two points from five games is their worst run in a season that promised much before beginning to peter out.

Team news

Frank made one change to his line-up at Molineux and switched the system to a 4-3-3 set-up, which he could retain for the visit of Villa.

Bryan Mbeumo replaced the injured Pontus Jansson, who announced he will leave Brentford to return to Malmo this summer and may have already played his final game for the club.

Mbuemo was one of Brentford's brighter players against Wolves and should keep his place.

But Josh Dasilva, Kevin Schade and Mathias Jensen should all be concerned for their starting berths after being hauled off in a triple change just after the hour mark.

As for Villa, Emery has no reason to change his team with only the recovery of Leon Bailey likely to give him pause for thought before naming an unchanged starting XI.

Leander Dendoncker, making just his second league start under the Spaniard, had a fine game and should continue alongside Douglas Luiz, John McGinn and Jacob Ramsey in the middle of the park.

The stats

Villa have won five straight Premier League games for the first time since April 1998.

The Villans have won 12 of their 18 league matches under Emery with only leaders Arsenal and champions Manchester City able to match their tally of 38 points during that period.

And they became the third team to score in each of their manager's first 18 games in the Premier League in charge after Mike Walker's Norwich in 1992 and Carlo Ancelotti's Chelsea in 2009.

Former Bees hero Watkins lifted his league tally for the season to 14 with 11 of those goals having come in his past 12 top-flight appearances

If his replacement Ivan Toney continues his pattern of scoring in alternate Premier League games since early February, he is due to get a goal on Saturday.

Brentford have failed to score in three of their last 11 games in the Premier League, but all three blanks were away from home and they have registered in nine consecutive home league contests.

Prediction

The contrasting form and fortunes of these two clubs should make it pretty easy to call the winner on Saturday.

There has been little to like about Brentford's three straight defeats which began with a meek display at Old Trafford, followed by them throwing away a half-time lead against Newcastle and then continued with an inability to recover at Molineux.

But back-to-back bad displays in front of their home fans have been rare since Frank took over and they can make things very difficult for a Villa side whose reliance on Watkins is covering up for a thin squad.

The Bees will sit deep and close off the passing and crossing lanes to the in-form striker, while they can trouble Villa on the counter-attack by keeping two forwards up the pitch.

Frank's team have posted higher expected goals numbers than their opponents in seven of their last nine home games — and they also did at Molineux — so this does not feel like the time to oppose them.

Back Brentford or Tie and Under 3.5 goals at 4/6 with LiveScore Bet.

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