- Plymouth have drawn five of nine matches against teams in the bottom six
- Derby have not won on their travels in the last 11 attempts
- Recommended bet: Draw

Plymouth have been among the favourites for relegation since the start of the Championship season, but they are now just three points adrift of safety and have an opportunity to leapfrog a relegation rival when hosting Derby at Home Park.

Argyle have done their best work in Devon, but they were able to celebrate a long-awaited first away win of the season on Wednesday after a hard-fought 2-1 success at Portsmouth.

Miron Muslic’s side have five home games left to play, however, those include daunting fixtures against title chasers Sheffield United and Leeds United.

Derby’s run-in looks easier with seven of the nine matches against teams in the bottom 10 positions.

The Rams have won their last two fixtures, including Tuesday’s 2-0 success at home to Coventry, but are still perched a point inside the drop zone.

Team news

Plymouth defender Matty Sorinola was sent off during Tuesday’s 2-1 victory at Portsmouth and must serve a one-match suspension.

Adam Randell completes a three-game ban and Julio Pleguezuelo faces a spell on the sidelines after suffering a rib injury.

Muhamed Tijani (hamstring) and Brendan Galloway (hip) remain out of contention.

Nathaniel Mendez-Laing (knee) has missed the last three games for Derby and Sondre Langas (hamstring) was unavailable for Tuesday's 2-0 win at home to Coventry.

Both are doubts to face Plymouth and the Rams’ lengthy injury list also includes Curtis Nelson, Lars-Jorgen Salvesen, David Ozoh, Dajaune Brown, Ben Osborn, Corey Blackett-Taylor and Kemar Roofe.

The stats

Plymouth have won four of their last five home matches against Derby.

Argyle have not kept a clean sheet in their last 12 Championship fixtures and have conceded the first goal in seven of their last eight home league games.

Derby have registered back-to-back wins for the first time since September.

Six of the Rams' last eight games have featured less than three goals.

Prediction

Championship basement boys Plymouth have been in the relegation zone for over three months, but they have sustained only five losses on home turf and can draw with Derby this weekend.

Argyle were winless in 15 league games between early November and the end of January, but have looked a lot more competitive in recent weeks and have avoided getting cut off at the foot of the table.

The Devonians are playing more of a counter-attacking style under Austrian head coach Muslic and it worked out for them on Wednesday when they defeated Portsmouth 2-1 despite a meagre possession share of 19.5%.

However, Argyle might have to play in a different way against Derby, who prefer to defend deep in away matches.

It could be a nervy affair with both teams afraid to take the initiative and the upshot could be a low-scoring outcome with every chance of the points being shared.

Back the draw at 15/8 with LiveScore Bet

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