Wales vs Montenegro predictions: Depleted Dragons may have to fight fire with fire
- Wales won 2-1 in Niksic last month
- Montenegro have lost all of their last five matches
- Montenegro are without a victory in their last six away games
- Recommended bet: Both teams to score
Wales gave away a two-goal lead in Iceland on Friday, but the point earned in Reykjavik keeps the Dragons in the hunt for promotion from Group B of the Nations League.
It has been a poor start to the campaign for Montenegro, who have lost all of their opening three Nations League matches and the Brave Falcons will be looking to break their duck in Cardiff.
Team news
Brennan Johnson and Jordan James are both suspended for Wales. The Dragons will also be without captain Aaron Ramsey, Dan James and Ethan Ampadu, although Joe Allen and David Brooks are pushing for a start
Experienced Montenegro defender Stefan Savic — formerly of Manchester City, Fiorentina and Atletico Madrid — will miss the trip to Cardiff through injury.
The stats
Montenegro have won only one of their last six matches, and only one of their last nine away games.
Wales have lost only one of their last 13 games (inside 90 minutes).
Montenegro have scored 16 goals in their last 13 matches.
Eight of Montenegro’s last 14 games have gone over 2.5 goals.
Both teams have scored in three of their previous four meetings between these nations.
Prediction
Wales would have been disappointed to lose a two-goal lead in Iceland on Friday, but the Dragons held on for a point and it has been a broadly successful start so far to Craig Bellamy’s time in charge of the national team.
At their best, Wales should have too much for a Montenegro side, who have lost five matches on the bounce — including a 2-1 home defeat to Wales last month — and won only one of their last nine away games, but Bellamy has selection issues.
Brennan Johnson, Jordan James, Aaron Ramsey, Dan James and Ethan Ampadu are all out for the home side and that is a big loss of quality.
Montenegro have struggled to pick up results, but the Brave Falcons have scored 16 goals in their last 13 matches and that includes the defeat to Wales in Niksic.
There were 32 efforts on goal in that attack-minded contest and there is no reason to think Cardiff’s reverse fixture will not follow suit.
Wales conceded 22 shots on goal against Robert Prosinecki’s men, while the tally count hit 20 last time out in Iceland and both sides can find the net in an entertaining Cardiff clash.
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