Paraguay vs Brazil predictions: Selecao can bounce back from Costa Rican frustrations
- Brazil had 19 shots and 1.7xG in their frustrating 0-0 draw with Costa Rica
- Seven of Paraguay’s last 10 games have ended either 0-0 or 1-0
- Recommended bet: Brazil and under 2.5 goals
Brazil were left hugely frustrated by their opening Copa America outing, with the Selecao held to a 0-0 draw against a Costa Rica side who are expected to prop up the section.
That 0-0 stalemate means that Brazil are likely to have to win their next two matches to top the group — a task that is within their capabilities but is no given on current form.
A tough third Group D match against Colombia is likely to decide whether Brazil can wriggle out of trouble to set an easier course through the knockout stages.
However, first they must overcome a Paraguay side who boast a surprisingly strong Copa record against the five-time World Cup winners.
Team news
Talisman Neymar, first-choice number nine Richarlison and goalkeeper Ederson are among the high-profile names who failed to make the Brazil squad through injury, but they have suffered no new injuries or absentees since the start of the tournament.
Paraguay have reported no injuries but right-back Gustavo Velazquez and defensive midfielder Andres Cubas picked up yellow cards against Colombia, as did manager Daniel Garnero.
The stats
Brazil have not beaten Paraguay within 90 minutes in any of their last five Copa America meetings — there were two group-stage draws, a win apiece on penalties and a Paraguay victory in extra-time.
Brazil manager Dorival Junior has only been in charge of the national team since January and his five games at the helm have returned single-goal wins against England and Mexico, and draws against Spain, USA and Costa Rica, with the latter being his first competitive match as head coach.
Paraguay have failed to score more than a single goal in each of their last 10 outings, winning just two of those games while losing five and with seven of them ending either 1-0 or 0-0.
Prediction
There are concerns within Brazil about Dorival Junior’s leadership and the quality of the squad, but it would be unwise to draw too many conclusions from their stalemate against Costa Rica.
Brazil were utterly dominant throughout, hitting the woodwork, having a goal disallowed for the most marginal of offsides and pinning Costa Rica back for the full 90 minutes.
Bruno Guimaraes and Lucas Paqueta created multiple openings and the likes of Rodrygo and Raphinha contributed heavily to a total of 19 shots without success. And while Vinicius Junior was frustrated by the physicality of the Costa Rica players, he remained a constant menace.
In the end, an expected goals rating of 1.7 to 0.0 and 74 percent possession in Brazil’s favour showed just how dominant they were against an opponent with no ambition beyond sitting deep and spoiling the game — a Costa Rican speciality over the past decade.
Paraguay are not exactly expansive but nor are they comfortable sitting 11 men behind the ball in an out-and-out defensive display.
They will try to match Costa Rica’s resilience but a lack of firepower and a record of three defeats and two goalless draws in their last five games against fellow South American sides suggest they will come up short.
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