Liverpool vs Everton predictions: Back Reds to eventually break Toffees down
- Despite away day woes, Liverpool have only lost once at home this season
- Everton will put up a fight but have only won once at Anfield since 1999
- Recommended bet: Half Time/Full Time - Draw/Liverpool
Liverpool and Everton square off in what should be a tasty Merseyside derby at Anfield with plenty riding on it on Monday night.
There are storylines aplenty going into the derby scrap, with Liverpool badly out of form and in desperate need of a win to kick-start their stuttering season, while the Toffees are still in the relegation mire.
Everton will be in a positive mood with Sean Dyche in charge, after he oversaw a 1-0 home win over leaders Arsenal in his first game, while Liverpool have been a pale shadow of the title-chasing side of last season in 2022-23, already losing seven top-flight matches this term.
However, the Reds' home record remains pretty formidable and Everton usually lose when they cross Stanley Park so this may well end up in a familiar — and much-needed — home win for Jurgen Klopp's side, although it is unlikely to be straight forward.
Team news
Liverpool forward Diogo Jota is expected to be back in the squad for the first time since mid-October after recovering from a calf injury, but Roberto Firmino, Virgil van Dijk and Arthur are all still unavailable, although the trio are also now close to a return.
Luis Diaz remains out long-term, Ibrahima Konate is absent with a hamstring injury and Thiago has a hip problem which is likely to rule him out of Monday's clash.
Everton's chief injury doubt is centre-forward Dominic Calvert-Lewin, who suffered a hamstring strain against Arsenal.
Dyche described his availability as "touch-and-go, at best" on Friday.
James Garner and Ben Godfrey are back in full training after recovering from back and knee injuries respectively and could be involved, but Nathan Patterson (knee) and Andros Townsend (ACL) are still out for the visitors.
The stats
Liverpool are still to win a league game in 2023, losing to Brentford, Brighton and Wolves and drawing with Chelsea.
Klopp's side have also been knocked out of the FA Cup early this year by the Seagulls.
Everton's win over Arsenal last weekend ended a run of 10 games without a win in all competitions.
The Toffees have a dismal record at Anfield, winning just once at the home of their local rivals since 1999.
Prediction
With Liverpool bang out of form and Everton possibly on the rise under new boss Dyche, suggesting an away win or a draw might seem the logical way to go ahead of what should be a keenly-fought derby.
However, Liverpool's record at home remains very good and is in stark contrast to their shocking recent away form, while Klopp has demanded a response from his side after the 3-0 loss at Wolves last time out.
The Reds have had well over a week to prepare and, while their drop-off this season from title challengers to a team scrambling around in mid-table has been alarming, some underlying stats do suggest they will get back to winning ways soon.
In their much-publicised defeats to Brentford, Brighton and Wolves, their xG figures reveal the performances may not have been as bad as the results suggest.
Against the Bees they actually won on xG (2.0 compared to 1.7), against Brighton they were on the wrong end of the metric (1.9 to 1.0), while last week Wolves came out on top, but only just, at 2.0 to 1.8 on xG.
Everton will be well-drilled at the back and will hope to spring on the counter-attack as well as causing problems at set-pieces, so it may take a second-half build-up of pressure for Klopp's team to deliver a win, but the Reds, backed by the home crowd, can edge it.
