Colombia vs Costa Rica predictions: Cafeteros can break defensive block
- Colombia have won last nine games, including single-goal defeats of Spain and Brazil
- Costa Rica held Brazil to a 0-0 draw in their opener but conceded 1.7 expected goals
- Recommended bet: Colombia to win 1-0
Colombia will be keen to avoid Uruguay in the knockout stages and after the Group D favourites Brazil slipped up in their first outing, Los Cafeteros will sense an opportunity to clinch top spot, and with it a safer route through the Copa America.
Victory against Costa Rica would mean Nestor Lorenzo’s side would need only a draw against Brazil to top Group D but first they must find a way past Friday’s tricky opponents.
Costa Rica are limited but they do what they do well — sit deep, spoil the play and frustrate superior opposition. Now it’s down to Colombia to find a way through.
Team news
Colombian centre-back Jhon Lucumi was forced off against Paraguay after twisting his ankle while blocking a shot. He was replaced by former Everton defender Yerry Mina, with the experienced centre-back likely to retain that spot.
Costa Rica have reported no injuries and there are no suspensions for either team.
The stats
Colombia have won eight of their last nine meetings with Costa Rica, with the most frequent margin of victory in that being a 1-0 scoreline that occurred three times.
Costa Rica have not won any of their last six meetings with South American teams, losing to Uruguay (2-1), Argentina (3-1), Ecuador (3-1) and Peru (1-0) in that run, as well as drawing 0-0 with Uruguay and Brazil.
Costa Rica have not conceded in any of their last four matches, holding Brazil and Uruguay to goalless draws while beating minnows Grenada 3-0 and St Kitts and Nevis 4-0. Prior to that, however, they were outclassed 3-1 by Argentina in a March friendly.
Colombia are unbeaten in 24 matches, winning 19, with victories over Spain, Brazil, Germany, Mexico and Japan among the scalps they have taken in that run.
Prediction
While Costa Rica will have to show more ambition than they did against Brazil if they hope to escape Group D, their strength lies in their organisation and resilience rather than their attacking flair.
However cautiously they do so, Costa Rica’s need to move outside of their defensive third will leave gaps that Colombia have the quality to exploit.
In James Rodriguez — who starred in the 2-1 victory over Paraguay, providing both assists — and Liverpool’s Luis Diaz, Colombia have the craft and pace to unsettle any defence.
Costa Rica will draw confidence from having dealt with an even more star-studded attack in their opening match but they were inches from being undone on several occasions — including Brazil hitting the woodwork and being caught marginally offside.
Colombia’s impressive recent record of nine successive wins — including defeats of Spain and Brazil — and 24 matches unbeaten shows they have both the solid defence and cohesive attack needed to break down even the best back lines.
It may not be pretty but Lorenzo’s settled and confident side should eventually break through.
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