Cheltenham Festival Day 1 predictions: Irish Point to spring a surprise

Enda McElhinney
Racing Post
  
Irish Point will be out to shock State Man in the Champion Hurdle on day one of the Cheltenham Festival.
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Excitement has been building all season and the opening day of the Cheltenham Festival finally arrives on Tuesday.

The Supreme Novices' Hurdle, Arkle and feature Champion Hurdle are among four Grade 1s on a stellar card and we have provided a best bet for each of these three races.

Supreme Novices' Hurdle - Cheltenham 1.30, March 12th

Key Talking Points: Who is the Mullins' number one?

Willie Mullins holds an exceptional hand in the opening Supreme Novices’ Hurdle as he is set to saddle six runners.

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Paul Townend has chosen to partner Tullyhill, but almost by default given chief market rival Mystical Power is Mark Walsh’s ride.

Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Best Bet: Mistergif a juicy each-way price @ 10/1

Mullins is also set to run Mistergif, who rates a fascinating prospect after an impressive winning stable debut for the yard at Limerick.

That was a performance worth plenty as he ran a much quicker time than the winners of the other 2m hurdles on that card while carrying more weight, looking as if he could have gone round again.

He could be anything and it seems significant that Mullins is willing to throw him straight into the Supreme. With substantial experience in France on his profile, the occasion should not get to him.

Gaelic Warrior faces a major challenge on day one of the Cheltenham Festival to try and win the Arkle.

Arkle - Cheltenham 2.10, March 12th

Key Talking Points: Will Gaelic Warrior bounce back?

Gaelic Warrior spent much of the jumps season occupying the top position in the Turners market. That all changed when he flopped in a match race with Brown Advisory favourite Fact To File at the Dublin Racing Festival and he now drops in trip.

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The engine is clearly there, but his right-jumping tendency must be a concern.

This can be considered one of the most open Arkles in years. With those heading the market making limited appeal, it could be worth siding with one of Willie Mullins’ lesser-known operators in Hunters Yarn.

He looked a smart prospect when pummelling Path D’Oroux last time and has always carried a lofty reputation despite his on-track achievements not yet marrying with that.

Champion Hurdle - Cheltenham 3.30, March 12th

Key Talking Points: Can State Man add to his Grade 1 haul?

Champion Hurdle favourite Constitution Hill was sadly ruled out of the Festival last week and State Man quickly jumped to the top of the betting.

He is an eight-time Grade 1 winner who has been dominating the Irish two-mile hurdling scene in the last two seasons and there will be some long faces in Willie Mullins’ yard if he cannot oblige with his old foe out of the way.

Champion Hurdle Best Bet: 11/2 Irish Point to upset State Man

State Man has essentially been beating up the same horses in Ireland and faces a formidable new opponent in Irish Point.

Gordon Elliott was deliberating over whether to throw Irish Point into the Champion rather than the Stayers', which initially seemed a logical fit, but Constitution Hill’s omission clearly forced his hand.

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The evidence of his last three easy successes (one over 2m, one over 2m4f and one over 3m) suggest we are dealing with a rapidly improving hurdler. He has the ability to stay longer distances and that could make all the difference on such testing ground.

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