Australia vs South Africa First Test predictions: Hosts to grab series lead at the Gabba

Simon Barlow
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Nathan Lyon could be key for the Aussies again against South Africa
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- Australia have won 64% of their Test matches in Brisbane 
- South Africa have not scored more than 179 runs in their last four Test innings 
- Recommended bet: Australia to win

Australia take on South Africa in the first of a three-match Test series at the Gabba in Brisbane on Saturday.

It is the first time the two nations have faced each other over the five-day format since the infamous 'Sandpapergate' series of 2017-18, which the Proteas won 3-1 on home soil.

It will be a crucial series for both teams as they chase a place at next year's ICC World Test Championship final at The Oval.

Australia's 2-0 series sweep of the West Indies earlier this month saw them increase their lead at the head of the WTC standings and, although South Africa remain in second place, there is no room for error while Sri Lanka and India are within striking distance.

Team news

Australia are hoping to have Pat Cummins firing on all cylinders again in Brisbane after the captain missed the hosts' second Test win over the West Indies with a quad injury.

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Chief selector George Bailey revealed Cummins "bowled with freedom on Saturday and appears likely to play this match".

But Josh Hazlewood, who also missed the 419-run victory in Adelaide, needs more time to shake off a side injury, which means one of Michael Neser, Scott Boland or Lance Morris will get their chance.

Both Neser and Boland picked up three wickets apiece in the West Indies' second innings, but the latter is being tipped to keep his place.

West Australian speedster Morris could be held back for the Boxing Day Test as his extreme pace is suited to the MCG pitch, while Marcus Harris looks unlikely to break back into a strong batting line-up.

South Africa warmed up for the series with a useful four-day hit-out against a Cricket Australia XI. 

Captain Dean Elgar plundered a century in the first innings while wicketkeeper Kyle Verreynne made 80 before Rassie van der Dussen (95) and Theunis de Bruyn (88) got amongst the runs in the second knock.

Dean Elgar was in good form for South Africa in their warm-up against a Cricket Australia XI

Temba Bavuma enjoyed some time in the middle during the second innings as he returned from an elbow injury that had prevented him batting first up.

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One of the Proteas' four front-line seamers — Kagiso Rabada, Anrich Nortje, Lungi Ngidi and Marco Jansen — is likely to miss out.

Left-arm spinner Keshav Maharaj, who suffered a low-grade groin injury during the T20 World Cup last month, was able to bowl 28 overs in the warm-up and should be in contention for the First Test.

The stats

Nathan Lyon claimed his 450th Test wicket in the second Test against the West Indies and became the third Australian bowler after Shane Warne and Glenn McGrath to reach the landmark.

Australia stretched their unbeaten record in day-night Tests to 11 matches with seven of them having been at the Adelaide Oval.

Marnus Labuschagne's 502 runs against the West Indies set a new Australian record for a two-Test series.

Labuschagne currently has a better batting average (94.94) in Australia's first innings of home Tests than Don Bradman did when he finished his career (94.13).

Only two Proteas batters have notched centuries this year, with Sarel Erwee (108) and Kyle Verreynne (136 not out) scoring tons in Christchurch back in February.

Prediction

South Africa have a world-class bowling unit and could find ways to trouble Australia's in-form batters like Steve Smith, whose Test average against the Proteas (41.53) is significantly lower than his career average (60.98).

But the tourists have not been getting enough runs to put the required pressure on teams in the second innings as they posted four scores of less than 180 runs in the final two Tests in England last summer and lost both times.

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Australia's record at the Gabba remains formidable as the hosts have won 41 of the 64 Tests (64%) played at the ground, drawing 13, losing nine and one finishing as a tied Test.

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