Alex de Minaur vs Novak Djokovic predictions: Tiebreaks to be in short supply
- Novak Djokovic leads Alex de Minaur 2-1 in head-to-head meetings
- All three meetings have been settled in straight sets
- Recommended bet: Under 0.5 match tiebreaks
Novak Djokovic came into Wimbledon under an injury cloud but the seven-time grass-court king is now just three match wins away from equalling Roger Federer on eight men's singles titles.
Having been a doubt to even play in the tournament following surgery on the torn meniscus he suffered at last month's French Open, the Serb will participate in his 15th Wimbledon quarter-final when he meets Alex de Minaur on Centre Court on Wednesday.
Second seed Djokovic reached the last-eight stage with a fourth-round win over Holger Rune, beating the Dane in straight sets to tee up a clash with Australian ace De Minaur, who is ranked ninth on the ATP Tour and enjoying the most productive year of his career.
The stats
These two have met on three previous occasions and Djokovic has held sway in two of their clashes, including a 7-5 6-4 win at this season's Monte Carlo Masters.
Djokovic also triumphed in straight sets at the Australian Open in 2023 — their only previous Slam meeting — although De Minaur can take heart from the 6-4 6-4 win that he posted in the United Cup at the beginning of this year.
De Minaur has only played three times thanks to a third-round walkover and only dropped a set against Arthur Fils last time out while Djokovic was forced to go to four in wins over Jacob Fearnley and Alexei Popyrin.
Prediction
It has been a stop-start season for Djokovic, who has suffered from numerous injury niggles, and he came into Wimbledon without a title win to his name in 2024, while De Minaur has bagged silverware in Mexico and most recently on the grass in Den Bosch.
There were legitimate concerns over Djokovic's fitness on the eve of the tournament and while he has not been foot-perfect, he has not been pushed too hard yet and was rock-solid against Rune for all that the Dane was poor on his own serve.
De Minaur is more consistent than Rune but he lacks the power to really take Djokovic out of his comfort zone and he lacks the ability to regularly pick up cheap points on his own serve.
Djokovic looks the rightful favourite but the best bet could be to take under 0.5 tiebreaks in the match.
De Minaur played and won three tiebreaks in his first-round victory over James Duckworth but each of those sets featured a break of serve and neither of the Australian's subsequent matches saw a set go the distance.
Djokovic, meanwhile, has played 14 sets at Wimbledon this year but just one tiebreak.
This contest features two of the best returners on the ATP Tour so there could be plenty of breakpoint opportunities on both sides of the net, which reduces the chance of a tiebreak being contested.
