- Ecuador have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last six games
- Mexico have conceded eight goals across their last four matches
- Recommended bet: Both teams to score

The sides in third and second in Group B at the 2024 Copa America clash in their final group game, with the winner claiming a place in the knockout stages. 

Venezuela have advanced with two wins from two and Jamaica are out of the running, leaving these two sides to battle it out for the second spot. Ecuador have the edge on goal difference, meaning this is a must-win game for Mexico. 

Team news

The key absentee here could be West Ham’s Edson Alvarez, who missed Mexico’s last game. He went off with a hamstring injury in their opener and will be a huge miss if he fails to make it back in time. 

Ecuador are not expected to have any injury concerns heading into this clash.

Chelsea’s Moises Caicedo picked up the man of the match award in their win over Jamaica, with future teammate Kendry Paez scoring. This highly-rated Ecuador side are set to remain unchanged. 

The stats

Ecuador have gone 11 Copa America games without a clean sheet.

Three of the last four meetings between these two have seen both teams score.

Mexico have conceded in 10 of their last 14 games.

Mexico had 18 shots in their 1-0 loss to Venezuela last time out.

Ecuador conceded four shots on target to bottom side Jamaica in their last game.

Mexico have recorded 14 shots on target through two games at this tournament.

Prediction

Mexico’s opening two games at the Copa America have brought a 1-0 win and a 1-0 defeat, putting them at a disadvantage in their race for second.

Ecuador’s 3-1 win over Jamaica has put them in the driving seat for the next round, as they need only a draw when these two clash in Arizona.

While Mexico’s opening two games have been low-scoring, they have created chances. With 14 shots on target through those two games — taking 18 shots without success in their clash with Venezuela — El Tri has clearly had opportunities.

They meet an Ecuador side who are going places in international football. Moises Caicedo anchors their midfield, with wonderkid Kendry Paez the pick of an exciting generation of players. 

While Ecuador have thrilled going forward, they have failed to keep a clean sheet across their last six matches. On top of that, they boast an awful record at this tournament, going 11 Copa America games without recording a shutout.

Mexico are primed to take advantage, especially as Ecuador shipped chances to bottom-side Jamaica. However, Mexico’s need to commit players forward could end up costing them, as El Tri have recorded only four clean sheets across their last 14 starts.

Overall, neither of these defences appear all that trustworthy. Ecuador cannot really afford to sit back and rely on a solid defensive display, while Mexico should create chances given their desperation for a win.

However, with Mexico conceding eight goals across their last four matches, expect goals at both ends. 

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