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First Ashes Test predictions: Aussies tipped to start well
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Simon Barlow
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Pat Cummins' Australia take on England in the first Ashes Test at Edgbaston
Pat Cummins' Australia take on England in the first Ashes Test at Edgbaston

- Root averages over 20 runs more than any England batter at Edgbaston 
- Boland has taken 33 wickets in just eight Tests 
- Recommended Bets: 
- Root to be England Top Batter - 1st innings 
- Boland to be Australia Top Bowler - 1st innings

All the pre-series talk finally stops on Friday when England and Australia face off at Edgbaston in the eagerly-anticipated first Test.

The Baggy Greens enjoyed the perfect warm-up for the defence of the urn, which they hold thanks to a 4-0 series win Down Under in 2021-22.

Pat Cummins' side overcame India by 209 runs at The Oval to secure the World Test Championship in a demonstration of the brand of cricket they believe can beat England's high-octane 'Bazball'.

Cummins' bold declaration set India a target of 444 for victory but Australia's bowlers ensured they never got close.

Paceman Scott Boland ripped through the top order before spinner Nathan Lyon cleared up the tail to give Ben Stokes plenty to ponder ahead of the impending battle in Birmingham.

Team news

Stokes quelled fears that he may not be fit enough to bowl when he posted a video of him roaring in at full tilt during training last Friday.

His role as the side's fifth bowler was made even more crucial by the loss of Jack Leach, who was diagnosed with a stress fracture of his back after England's 10-wicket win over Ireland at Lord's earlier this month.

Moeen Ali, who has an unflattering bowling average of 65 against the Aussies, answered Stokes' call to be the frontline spinner with Joe Root primed to pick up the slack.

As ever, England will rely on their new ball bowlers to peg Australia back with one of Jimmy Anderson, Mark Wood, Stuart Broad and Ollie Robinson to miss out.

The batting order is set in stone with Ollie Pope looking increasingly like a world-class No.3 and Harry Brook established in the middle order ahead of Stokes and wicketkeeper Jonny Bairstow.

Australia could go with an unchanged team from The Oval, meaning Josh Hazlewood would be the odd man out again.

The New South Wales paceman has been dogged by injuries over the past two years, but he is fit and ready to replace Mitchell Starc if Australia think his ability to bowl dry is needed against England's dashers.

Boland virtually made himself undroppable after playing a starring role against India and looks a shoo-in to be selected in a four-man attack.

The stats

In his Test career to date, Boland has taken 11 first-innings wickets at an average of 27.4 and 22 second-innings wickets an an average of 8.2.

Cummins has been the leading wicket-taker in the last three Ashes series, racking up 29 victims during the drawn series in England four years ago.

Broad took the wicket of David Warner seven times during the 2019 Ashes with the Australian opener's final series average being just 9.5.

Prediction

The pitch is expected to be firm and fast, which will suit the tourists just fine.

The conditions are unlikely to alter too much with the weather set fair with sunny conditions expected for the first three days, so the outcome of the toss should not have a significant impact — unless England make the mistake of sticking Australia in.

In Edgbaston's Test history, twice as many teams that batted first have won, but the hosts prefer to chase runs and not wickets for victory.

Joe Root is tipped to enjoy a good first innings for England
Joe Root is tipped to enjoy a good first innings for England

Australia's recent form suggests they can wrestle the early initiative by winning this contest inside five days with the draw making very little appeal because of England's all-or-nothing approach.

Steve Smith averages 75 on the ground and Joe Root 72.5, so there is no reason to look much further than the 5/2 favourites in the respective top batter, first innings markets, but there is good value on Boland to be the Aussies' chief destroyer

The paceman's swing and length bowling was incredible at the Oval and England's top order have faced very little of him.

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