Everton vs Newcastle predictions: Toffees will look to stifle in-form Magpies

Dan Sait

Spotlight

Dominic Calvert-Lewin's recent return could prove timely for Everton

- Everton have more than doubled their home points-per-game under Sean Dyche
- Newcastle have only three wins from their last eight league away games
- Recommended bet: First-half draw

Everton slipped up in their last Goodison Park outing to push them deeper into relegation danger and Sean Dyche's men now desperately need their home supporters to help carry them towards safety.

The Toffees face an uphill task after that loss to Fulham as they have a dreadful record on the road and their final three home games see them host a potential relegation decider against Bournemouth after visits from highflying Manchester City and Newcastle.

The Magpies put on an exhibition performance against Tottenham last weekend, obliterating their supposed top-four rivals with five goals in the opening 21 minutes.

However, Everton will not be as accommodating as a shambolic Spurs side, with Dyche sure to have to have his team well-drilled, compact and battling for their Premier League survival.

Team news

Everton right-back Seamus Coleman has a thigh injury and replacement Mason Holgate is suspended, meaning Ben Godfrey is likely to deputise.

Winger Andros Townsend is unlikely to return from injury this season and the same is true of left-back Ruben Vinagre and Dele Alli.

In better news, striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin lasted 90 minutes before being replaced in stoppage time during last weekend's return and should again start.

Key man Abdoulaye Doucoure returns from suspension and fellow midfielder Amadou Onana could recover from a groin strain.

Newcastle will again be without Allan Saint-Maximin on Thursday

Newcastle attacker Allan Saint-Maximin and centre-back Fabian Schar both have thigh injuries and are likely to both miss out but midfielder Bruno Guimaraes should feature despite picking up an ankle knock.

Emil Krafth will not return until the summer and Ryan Fraser has been demoted from the first-team squad.

The stats

After a five-game winless run in February and early March, Newcastle have now won six of their last seven matches.

That form coincides with the availability of Guimaraes, who was suspended for three of those games before returning for a closely fought Carabao Cup final defeat to Manchester United and a 2-0 loss to Manchester City.

Indeed, the difference in Newcastle's results with and without the Brazilian is stark – they have won 67% and lost only 10% of games he has started this season but have won only one of the nine he did not start – and that was against League Two Tranmere.

Everton have continued to struggle away since Dyche took the reins but their Goodison Park record has improved from 0.8 points per game in the 10 home games under Frank Lampard to an average of 1.67 under Dyche.

While that six-match record takes in defeats to Aston Villa and Fulham, Everton were unlucky in both losses – both visitors registered less than 0.3 more expected goals than the Toffees – and it includes victories over Arsenal, Brentford and Leeds and a draw with Tottenham.

The latest Everton vs Newcastle odds are available on LiveScore Bet

Prediction

While Newcastle rightly earned plaudits for their electric St James' Park romp against Tottenham, a midweek trip to Everton is a very different test.

The Toffees are solid on home soil and while they slipped up against Fulham, Dyche made a rare tactical error in playing an attacking 4-4-2, which was compounded by the absence of Doucoure and Onana in midfield.

Doucoure will return and could be joined by Onana and it is likely that they will revert to a more solid midfield three against dangerous visitors.

Shutting down Newcastle's attack will be Everton's first priority, making under 2.5 goals an appealing addition to Bet Builders, but it also points to a slow-starting match.

Newcastle have led in only one of their last eight Premier League away games and, facing an Everton side in full survival mode, they may again struggle to take control early on.

Back the half-time draw, available at 23/20 with LiveScore Bet.