Everton vs Newcastle predictions: Setback in store for Magpies
- Newcastle lost 11 of their 19 away games last season
- Everton have taken four points from their last two games
- Recommended bet: Everton to win
Everton picked up their first league win of the campaign last weekend and they are out to build on that victory in Saturday evening’s clash with Newcastle.
Sean Dyche’s side made the most of two strong runs of form to stave off relegation. They started last term winless in their first five - just like this term - before clicking into gear.
The Toffees also recorded a winless run from Christmas to April before bursting into form, so they are a side to get behind once their results turn.
Team news
Newcastle boss Eddie Howe has confirmed that Alexander Isak is missing this weekend, joining Callum Wilson on the sidelines.
The Magpies will likely be forced to start with Anthony Gordon out of position at centre-forward against his former club.
As for Everton, Seamus Coleman remains out. The Toffees are expected to stick with the side which beat Palace last weekend.
The stats
After their first win last season, Everton won seven of their next 11 league games.
The Toffees secured survival with a streak of five wins in seven late last season.
Newcastle’s two strongest attacking displays this term have been in games with less than 40 per-cent of possession.
The Magpies’ two worst defensive displays have come in matches with 61 per-cent of the ball.
Everton have the lowest average possession in the league, at just 36.9 per-cent.
The Toffees have scored the opening goal in four of their last five matches.
Prediction
Newcastle drew at home to Manchester City last weekend and they held the champions to just 0.9 Expected Goals. That match played into the Magpies’ strengths, as they tend to look their best when allowed to sacrifice possession for a compact defensive shape.
The same was clear in their 2-1 victory over Tottenham, where Spurs had most of the ball but Newcastle ultimately created the clearer chances.
Howe’s men have claimed four points from visits to Bournemouth, Wolves and Fulham this term but their performances have been poorer.
Fulham hammered them 3-1, while they were fortunate to avoid defeat against the Cherries. There was also little between the Magpies and bottom-club Wolves in a narrow 2-1 victory.
Those clashes with Fulham and Bournemouth have seen Newcastle dominate possession, but they conceded an xG of 2.2 despite having 61 per-cent of the ball.
The worry for the visitors is that they will be back to forcing the issue this weekend. No Premier League side avoids possession quite like Everton, but their style suits that - even when playing in front of their own fans.
The Toffees have noticeably stepped up defensively in their last two games, conceding 0.7 and 0.9 Expected Goals. It is clear they look better up front than last season, so straightening up their backline should bring a bump in results.
Everton’s 13 wins last season came in clusters totalling just 19 of their 38 matches. Fresh from a win and facing a Newcastle side that struggles against a more conservative approach, Everton look like great value at Goodison Park.
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