- The Netherlands have conceded at least two goals in three of their last four games 
- Italy are unbeaten in their last seven meetings with the Netherlands 
- Recommended bet: Italy to win

Neither of the previous two Nations League hosts have finished in fourth place and the Netherlands will be aiming to avoid that fate when taking on Italy in Enschede.

Ronald Koeman's second spell as the Oranje head coach is off to a shaky start and he will be anxious to see some improvement before the September resumption of Euro 2024 qualifying.

But there is arguably greater pressure on the shoulders of Italy manager Roberto Mancini, who has been leading the team since May 2018.

Mancini was heavily criticised after Italy's failure to qualify for the 2022 World Cup and needs a positive result and performance to get the supporters back onside.

Team news

Netherlands’ head coach Ronald Koeman could be planning several changes after the exertions of Wednesday's 4-2 extra-time defeat to Croatia.

Martin De Roon could be asked to stiffen up the midfield and Wout Weghorst and Steven Bergwijn are likely candidates to liven up the attack.

Memphis Depay missed the tournament through injury.

Italy will have to assess Alessandro Bastoni (illness) and Davide Frattesi, who seemed to pick up an injury during Thursday's 2-1 loss to Spain.

Domenico Berardi and Matteo Pessina missed out on a place in the squad due to injury concerns.

The stats

The Netherlands have conceded at least two goals in three of their last four fixtures.

Four of the Oranje's last five games have featured at least four goals but the previous five fixtures had each generated fewer than three goals.

Italy have sustained three defeats in their last four fixtures.

They have conceded the first goal in four of their last five games with the exception being a 2-0 success away to Malta.

Each of Italy's last four matches at major tournaments have finished goals for both teams.

The Azzurri are unbeaten in their last seven meetings with the Netherlands, winning three and drawing four.

Prediction

Pressure is mounting on Roberto Mancini but he can give himself some breathing space by steering Italy to success over the Netherlands in their Nations League third-place playoff.

Mancini went with a more experienced side for the semi-final against Spain, selecting Leonardo Bonucci and Ciro Immobile, but the Azzurri slumped to a 2-1 defeat.

The match was in the balance until Joselu's 88th-minute winning goal but Italy were on the back foot for long periods and their captain, Bonucci, was taken off at half-time.

Immobile fared a little better, scoring an 11th-minute penalty, but was taken off on the hour mark when Mancini made the second of two double substitutions.

Mancini's tinkering will probably continue at the weekend and the likely involvement of some younger, more athletic players might just give his team the edge.

The Netherlands came into the tournament as favourites but they largely struggled against Croatia and could have no complaints over the outcome.

Seven months on from the World Cup, they are struggling to establish a recognisable style of play and were restricted to a 46 per cent share of possession against a Croatia side which seemed more composed and better organised.

Koeman will have to keep on experimenting until he gets it right but there are sure to be further bumps on the road and one of them may arrive against the Italians.

Back Italy at 9/5 with LiveScore Bet.