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Italian Open predictions: Aphibarnrat's positive trends make appeal
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Enda McElhinney
Spotlight
Kiradech Aphibarnrat is getting his overall game back on track in 2024
Kiradech Aphibarnrat is getting his overall game back on track in 2024

- The Italian Open has a new home this week at Adriatic Golf Club in Cervia
- Former Masters champion Patrick Reed is a high profile contender
- Recommended bets
- Kiradech Aphibarnrat to win and each-way
- Rafa Cabrera-Bello to win and each-way

The DP World Tour is stopping off at the Adriatic Golf Club in Cervia, a new home for the Italian Open following a successful three-year stay at Marco Simone Golf in Rome – leading of course to the 2023 Ryder Cup.

A year on from the 80th anniversary of the Italian Open, won by Adrian Meronk, this 6,965-yard par 70 test is likely to demand accuracy off the tee before the field turns their attention to approaching what are relatively small putting surfaces.

South Africa's Hennie Otto won his second Italian Open in 2014 and remains the most recent non-European winner.

Major winner Patrick Reed is priced at 14/1 with LiveScore Bet to become the first American winner since Billy Casper in 1975.

Aphibarnrat should turn the corner soon

Missed cuts at the last three events he has teed up in aren't instantly encouraging for Kiradech Aphibarnrat but, no less, the four-time DP World Tour winner is bubbling under the surface and worth an interest to find form in Italy.

He was tied-second at the Italian Open in 2017 when Tyrell Hatton won in Milan and posted three under-par scores en route to T12 at Marco Simone in 2022, his best finish in this event since.

His last couple of seasons have been lean but a current Race To Dubai ranking of 53rd is a result of some improvement in 2024.

In those lean times he has ranked 163rd (2022) and 128th (2023) for greens in regulation, heaping pressure on his powers of recovery, but he's trending upwards now at 74th so far in 2024.

His driving accuracy ranks 29th, a personal best, while he had six under-par rounds (from seven) at the ISPS Handa and the China Open prior to his more recent struggles.

With this course being new on the roster, he's worth taking a chance on to make a challenge after that good form in late April-early May.

Cabrera-Bello to shine in Italy

Spain's Rafa Cabrera-Bello has two Italian Open top 10s on his CV
Spain's Rafa Cabrera-Bello has two Italian Open top 10s on his CV

Spaniard Rafa Cabrera-Bello might also be worth an interest at a big price in Italy this week. The Gran Canaria-born former Ryder Cup player is also a four-time DP World Tour winner and he has a pair of Italian Open top 10s on his CV.

He posted a fine seventh at the European Open in Hamburg at the start of this month, making 16 birdies across four rounds and he might have had a sniff at the win had the par four 10th hole not caught him out in three of his four rounds for bogey.

He's been decent without threatening in two starts since at Scandinavian Mixed (T25) and the KLM Open (T29) and 10 of his previous 12 tournament rounds have been under par.

Parts of this course are described as exposed and so Cabrera-Bello's driving 47th-ranked driving accuracy isn't a major source of worry. His putts per round stats see him just outside the top 20 and a good week on the greens could be key to him outrunning decent odds.

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