Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic predictions: Defending champion to reign again
- Carlos Alcaraz beat Novak Djokovic in a five-set classic in last year's final
- Djokovic has yet to win a title in 2024
- Recommended bet: Carlos Alcaraz to win 3-1
Despite the rise of Jannik Sinner and doubts over his nearest challengers heading into the tournament, Sunday's Wimbledon men's singles final between Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic has the makings of another classic between the generations.
This is a repeat of last year's final in which Alcaraz prevailed in a five-set epic to land his second major title and ultimately deny Djokovic the calendar Grand Slam.
The super Serb had gone into Wimbledon in 2023 as the Australian and French Open champion — beating Alcaraz in the semi-finals at Roland Garros — but then bounced back from his SW19 heartache to win both the US Open and ATP Finals — again beating Alcaraz in the latter — to suggest that his dominance of the men's game was far from over.
However, 2024 has been a tough year for Djokovic as he has yet to win a trophy and was forced to pull out of the French Open due to injury, only just returning from knee surgery in time for Wimbledon.
It was perhaps a surprise to see him take to the grass, even more so that he has made it this far with relative ease, although he has seemingly been given a kind draw with the added benefit of Alex de Minaur's withdrawal ahead of their quarter-final tie.
Alcaraz of course won in Paris last month to register his third Grand Slam success but his early exit at Queen's — a title he won ahead of his Wimbledon glory last year — had put a question mark over his ability to go deep.
However, despite having to battle at some point in each of his matches so far, Alcaraz has produced the goods more often than not to set up the chance to join a select group of players who have successfully defended the title.
The stats
Sunday's final is a repeat of last year's Wimbledon showpiece in which Carlos Alcaraz prevailed in five sets, 1-6 7-6 6-1 3-6 6-4, for his second career win over Novak Djokovic.
However, the Serbian leads the head-to-head series against the younger Spaniard 3-2, which includes two wins post Wimbledon last year, recording a 6-3 6-2 success in their most recent meeting at the ATP Finals.
Alcaraz won his opening two matches in straight sets but has needed at least four in each of his next four matches, having also come through a five-setter in his third-round clash against Frances Tiafoe.
The world number three has lost the opening set in his two most recent assignments — against Tommy Paul in the quarter-finals and Daniil Medvedev in the last four.
Djokovic has enjoyed a much easier path to the final having only faced one top-20 player so far, with ninth seed Alex de Minaur withdrawing from their quarter-final clash before a ball was struck.
The seven-time champion has won three of his five matches in straight sets, including his last two matches against 15th seed Holger Rune and 25th seed Lorenzo Musetti. However, world number 277 Jacob Fearnley and 47th-ranked Alexei Popyrin took a set off him.
World number two Djokovic has yet to win a title in 2024 and has lost six of his 24 games this year, having lost only seven in all of 2023.
Prediction
Carlos Alcaraz won last year's final and comes into this repeat clash on the back of landing his first French Open title last month, making it three wins from his first three Grand Slam finals, each on a different surface.
The young Spaniard is widely seen as the heir apparent to Djokovic as the top dog in men's tennis, even if he is behind both the Serbian and Italian ace Jannik Sinner in the world rankings.
Djokovic's knee injury suffered in Paris had put a serious doubt on his ability to challenge for an eighth Wimbledon title and there is no doubt his run to the final has not been as taxing as that of his opponent, a massive bonus in the context of his fitness concerns.
It would be folly to write off a player who has lost only one of his last 40 matches at Wimbledon, while also winning seven of the previous nine finals he has contested at the All England Club, but Alcaraz is at another level compared to the players Djokovic — who is perhaps not at 100% fitness-wise — has beaten to get to the final.
Still, with Djokovic's renowned spirit and never-say-die attitude, coupled with Alcaraz having found a little trouble in each of his matches so far, this one is not likely to be straightforward.