Switzerland vs Italy predictions: Swiss can cut Italian celebrations short
- Italy have won only five of their last 10 games, losing to Spain and England in that run
- Switzerland have lost only one of their last 17 games, holding Germany last time out
- Recommended bet: Switzerland to win
Italy's group-stage campaign in this European Championships ended in euphoria, with a stunning 98th-minute Mattia Zaccagni strike earning a point against Croatia and catapulting the Azzurri into the knockout stages.
However, a last-16 meeting against a dangerous Switzerland side on Saturday will demand that Luciano Spalletti's side quickly rediscover their focus, as the Swiss have again shown they are a force to be reckoned with.
Sunday’s well-deserved draw against Germany showed that Switzerland have the quality to replicate their Euro 2020 performance, when the underdogs eliminated favourites France at this stage.
Team news
Switzerland wingback Silvan Widmer is suspended and is likely to be replaced by Stuttgart's Leonidas Stergiou, who is more defensive-minded.
Having come off the bench in Switzerland’s first two group-stage games, injury-plagued centre-forward Breel Embolo made his first start in 17 international matches against Germany. Fitness permitting, he will retain his place.
Italy switched to a back three for their final group game, but centre-back Riccardo Calafiori is now suspended.
Spalletti is not blessed with experienced replacements so is likely to again pack the defence, with one of Alessandro Buongiorno or Gianluca Mancini joining Matteo Darmian and Alessandro Bastoni in a back three.
The stats
Italy are unbeaten in their last 11 meetings with Switzerland but five of the last six ended either 1-1 or 0-0.
Italy have not scored more than two goals in their last eight outings but have not conceded more than one in any of those games, either. However, they failed to keep a clean sheet against any of Croatia, Spain or Albania in Group B.
Italy have yet to beat a top-level opponent in their 13 games under Spalletti, losing to Spain and England while drawing against Croatia, Turkey, Ukraine and even North Macedonia.
Switzerland have lost only once in their last 17 matches — a meaningless meeting with Romania after they had already qualified — and only one of their last 10 games has provided more than two goals.
Prediction
Italy look unconvincing favourites against an unfashionable but well-organised Switzerland side.
There is quality through the spine of the Swiss team with Inter's Yann Sommer in goal, Fabian Schar and Manuel Akanji bolstering a solid back three, Granit Xhaka running midfield and Monaco's Embolo spearheading the attack.
While the squad lacks elite creative talent — 32-year-old Xherdan Shaqiri is used sparingly and generally against lesser opponents — manager Murat Yakin has constructed a hard-working, cohesive unit.
As was shown when shocking France at Euro 2020 and against Germany on Sunday, Switzerland are capable of rising to the occasion and will not fear an Italy side that has still yet to take shape under Spalletti.
The former Napoli manager has been in charge for less than a year and Italy have unsurprisingly experienced mixed results while Spalletti has tinkered with a range of formations and personnel.
Italy were flattered by only a 1-0 defeat to Spain and, more pertinently, their 1-1 draw with Croatia, and Switzerland have the energy and organisation to cause an upset against an Italian team that remains a work in progress.
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