Brighton vs Everton predictions: Toffees to secure more Amex gains
- Brighton are buoyant after winning 5-0 at Sheffield United last week
- Everton’s 1-1 draw with Palace was their fourth draw in five
- Recommended bet: Tie or Everton Double Chance
Everton saved their best performance of 2022-23 for Brighton away, romping to a stunning 5-1 win in May, and they would dearly love any kind of victory as they revisit the Amex with top-flight survival on their minds.
Brighton have other targets, namely qualifying for Europe again, and they are proving hard to beat in front of their own fans.
Team news
Roberto de Zerbi is likely to stick with a 4-2-3-1 set-up with both Simon Adingra and Kaoru Mitoma starting.
The Italian has injuries to contend with — no Joao Pedro, James Milner, Solly March or Jack Hinshelwood — but he is unlikely to make many tweaks from the side which drubbed Sheffield United.
Amadou Onana transformed Everton off the bench against Crystal Palace on Monday so presumably comes in for either Idrissa Gueye or James Garner.
Jack Harrison also impressed as a second-half sub against the Eagles and may well oust Ashley Young.
The stats
Brighton are unbeaten in their last 11 home games. They have scored and conceded in 14 of their last 15 on home soil.
Five of their last eight Premier League home matches have ended in draws.
Everton sit at the bottom of the overs/unders table, their matches averaging 2.4 goals a time. Brighton’s games average 3.5 goals, the third highest in the division.
Everton are winless in their last eight Premier League matches. They have drawn five of their last eight in all competitions — eight matches which have produced just 12 goals.
Over half (14/27) of Everton’s goals this season have come from set-pieces.
Prediction
Everton are fighting for their Premier League lives and proving hard to beat and that has to give them a chance of defying the odds at the Amex Stadium.
On the ground where they counter-attacked Albion to pieces last May, Everton will once again soak up endless Brighton pressure and hope to use the likes of Harrison, Dwight McNeil and the out-of-form Dominic Calvert-Lewin on the counter.
Everton have tightened up since Ben Godfrey was restored to a now settled back line and while they aren’t winning many matches, they aren’t losing many either.
Brighton are a threat from all corners, moreso with Adingra and Mitoma restored after international absences, though Joao Pedro is a miss.
Everton are simply a threat from corners — only Arsenal have scored more direct from such set pieces, while the 17/4 that the first goal is a headed goal deserves a second glance. The Tie or Everton Double Chance, however, deserves the investment.
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