- Milan's last five home games have each featured fewer than three goals 
- Napoli's last two UCL away games have seen fewer than three goals scored 
- Recommended bet: Back Under 2.5 goals

AC Milan and Napoli meet at Stadio San Siro on Wednesday in the first leg of the only Champions League quarter-final to pit two teams from the same country together.

Gli Azzurri may be 16 points clear at the top of Serie A, but Luciano Spalletti's side were taken down a peg or two earlier this month when Milan inflicted Napoli's heaviest defeat since December 2007.

Rafael Leao upstaged Kvicha Kvaratskhelia with two goals as the Rossoneri raced into a 3-0 lead before substitute Alexis Saelemaekers finished the rout with a mazy dribble reminiscent of the Georgian at his best.

Milan were unable to reach those heights again when they were held 0-0 at home by Empoli last Friday, but Napoli did bounce back with a hard-fought 2-1 victory at Lecce.

Team news

Stefano Pioli will be without the services of veteran striker Zlatan Ibrahimovic, who is not registered to play in the Champions League, and young defender Pierre Kalulu again on Wednesday.

Kalulu is working to return from a calf injury he picked up on France Under-21 duty late last month.

If he picks the same XI that won 4-0 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Simon Kjaer, Olivier Giroud, Brahim Diaz and Leao will be recalled to the starting line-up in place of Malick Thiaw, Ante Rebic, Divock Origi and Saelemaekers.

As for Napoli, Victor Osimhen is a doubtful starter because of the knee injury that has caused him to miss his team's last two league games.

Yet to fully recover from the knock, the Nigerian frontman will undergo medical tests on Tuesday to ascertain if he can play any part in the first leg.

Argentinean striker Giovanni Simeone lasted only 16 minutes as a substitute on Friday before he too left with an injury, so Giacomo Raspadori, who started against Lecce but has scored just one goal in 18 league matches this season, could be involved from the start again.

Defenders Bartosz Bereszynski and Mathias Olivera returned to take up places on the bench against Lecce.

The stats

Serie A's Capocannoniere with 21 goals for the season, Osimhen has been on fire this season for Napoli, scoring 25 goals in 29 matches in all competitions.

He has missed just six league games and three Champions League clashes this season, of which Napoli won all but one — including their 2-1 win over the Rossoneri at the San Siro in September.

The last six Serie A games between the clubs have been won by the away side and the three preceding fixtures were drawn, meaning Napoli were the last home team to win the fixture back on the opening day of the 2018-19 campaign.

Prediction

With the 4-0 thumping of Napoli being Milan's solitary victory in their last six games in all competitions, it is important not to put too much emphasis on that result.

The Partenopei had a rare bad day at the office, certainly at the back, although the Milan clean sheet did continue a trend of defensive solidity.

Pioli's men have blanked their opponents in three of their last five games and four straight Champions League clashes.

So Spalletti's side will know they cannot expect to cut the Rossoneri's defence to ribbons as they have done to so many teams they have faced this term.

Osimhen's return would be a major boost, but it cannot be counted on, and the scoring record of likely replacement Raspadori suggests goals could be scarce.

Back Under 2.5 goals at 4/6 with LiveScore Bet.

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