Venezuela vs Mexico predictions: Misfiring Mexicans could suffer minor shock

Dan Fitch

Spotlight

Fernando Batista got his changes spot on as Venezuela came from behind to win their opener against Ecuador

- Venezuela started their campaign with a comeback win against Ecuador
- Mexico enjoyed a narrow victory against Jamaica in their first game
- Recommended Bet: Venezuela to win draw no bet

With Venezuela and Mexico both winning their opening matches, a victory for either side would book their place in the Copa America quarter-finals.

Venezuela fought back from being behind to beat Ecuador 2-1, while a second-half goal from Mexico secured a 1-0 win against Jamaica.

Team news

Mexico may be forced to do without Edson Alvarez for the remainder of the tournament

The West Ham midfielder Edson Alvarez picked up a hamstring injury against Jamaica and the Mexico captain could miss the rest of the tournament.

Luis Romo replaced the captain after 30 minutes and could stay in Jaime Lozano’s team, who lined up against Jamaica in a 4-2-3-1 formation.

Venezuela’s goals against Ecuador were scored by their substitutes Jhonder Cadiz and Eduard Bello, giving their manager Fernando Batista a welcome selection dilemma.

The stats

Mexico are unbeaten in their last 13 games against Venezuela, winning ten of them.

They have met three times at the Copa America, with Mexico winning in 1995 and 1999, with the most recent encounter in 2016 ending in a draw.

Venezuela have not lost any of their last six games against sides from CONACAF, keeping five clean sheets in the process.

The latest Venezuela v Mexico odds are available on LiveScore Bet

Prediction

Venezuela could have been forgiven for thinking that things were going to run smoothly in their first game, after Ecuador’s Enner Valencia was sent off after 22 minutes.

Instead, a goal shortly before the break by Jeremy Sarmiento saw the Venezuelans go behind and Batista was not slow to respond, sending on Cadiz and Bello for Cristian Casseres and Darwin Machis at half-time.

Both substitutes scored to secure a deserved 2-1 victory, in a match in which La Vinotinto dominated possession with 66 per-cent of the play.

The win ended a five-match run without a victory, but overall Venezuela’s form has been decent in the 14 games since Batista was appointed in 2023, with only Colombia and Italy having beaten them.

Mexico’s victory came after warm-up defeats to Brazil and Uruguay, with the latter having thrashed Lozano’s side 4-0.

They enjoyed 62 per-cent possession against Jamaica and had nine shots on target, but while their victory was deserved, they could have been behind early in the second-half, when Michail Antonio’s goal was disallowed.

Defender Gerardo Arteaga produced a memorable strike to give Mexico victory, yet scoring goals looks like it will be an issue for them at this tournament against organised defences.

The Feyenoord striker Santiago Gimenez’s sparkling form at club level has yet to translate to the international stage, with the 23-year-old having not scored for his country since July 2023.

Venezuela are a gritty side with the qualities needed to frustrate the favourites and have the potential to cause a minor shock in this match.

Back Venezuela to win draw no bet @ 7/5 with LiveScore Bet