Southampton vs West Brom predictions: Saints to seal the deal at St Mary's

- Southampton have lost only one of their last nine meetings with West Brom
- West Brom have won only two of their last 12 away games
- Recommended bet: Southampton to win & under 3.5 goals

A goalless draw at The Hawthorns on Sunday means this Championship play-off semi-final is still hanging in the balance, but Southampton should be feeling the slightly happier of the pair ahead of the return leg at St Mary's.

The Saints finished fourth in the regular-season standings, 12 points ahead of West Brom and they may fancy finishing the job now armed with home advantage.

The opening leg was a game devoid of clear-cut chances – there were only five shots on target in total – but Southampton have had the better of the argument with the Baggies this season, having completed a league double over them in the season proper.

Team news

Southampton have Gavin Bazunu, Juan Larios and Stuart Armstrong all missing, but manager Russell Martin is confident that 16-goal striker Che Adams will be available to play his part having missed the opening leg at The Hawthorns.

West Brom have Daryl Dike out after he ruptured his Achilles, while Jayson Molumby is sidelined and Josh Maja is unlikely to feature as a result of a lack of first-team minutes.

The stats

Southampton have lost only one of their last nine meetings with West Brom, going unbeaten in three encounters with them this season.

Saints won home and away in the regular season, posting a 2-1 victory at St Mary’s in November and following up with a 2-0 success at The Hawthorns.

That means each of the last six meetings between the sides have featured no more than three goals.

Southampton won 15 of their 23 home league games in the regular season, losing only three of their final 19 league outings on their own patch.

West Brom have won only two of their last 12 away league games and have failed to score in three of their last five league matches.

Adam Armstrong is Southampton’s leading scorer this season with 21 goals, which was the second highest in Championship behind Blackburn’s Sammie Szmodics, eight of those were crucially the first goal of the match.

Prediction

Having been so formidable at home this season, West Brom will have been frustrated to have been held to a 0-0 draw by Southampton in the opening leg.

They managed only two shots on target and had only 36 per cent possession, so they are unlikely to see much of the ball at St Mary's.

Southampton know they have the beating of West Brom, having defeated them in both regular-season meetings and having Adams back to support Armstrong in attack will only help their cause.

The Baggies largely struggled on the road this season, with them winning only six of their 23 away games and collecting only two points from trips to fellow top-six sides.

Saints, meanwhile, have won 14 of their last 19 home league games and that includes success over West Brom, as well as Leeds, Sunderland and Coventry.

So, while the hosts are fancied to prevail, the high stakes means goals are likely to be in short supply and Saints can edge a low-scoring encounter.

Back Southampton to win & under 3.5 goals @ 13/10 with LiveScore Bet

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