Serie A Matchday 37: A statistical guide to this weekend's games

The race for Champions League qualification is going to the wire in Serie A — and only a fine-tooth comb can separate the division’s top-four challengers.

Just three points divide Atalanta, AC Milan, Napoli and Juventus after the quartet all won in midweek, setting up a nail-biting penultimate round of fixtures in Italy’s top flight.

Things are looking clearer at the bottom, with Benevento in the last chance saloon if they want to avoid the drop, while Roma and Sassuolo are set to fight it out for a place in UEFA’s new Europa Conference League in the campaign’s closing stages.

You can watch seven matches for FREE on the LiveScore app this weekend, including Genoa vs Atalanta, Fiorentina vs Napoli and AC Milan vs Cagliari.

Genoa vs Atalanta (Saturday, 2pm)

Atalanta start the weekend second in the table and will be confident of securing a spot in the Champions League for a third straight season.

They are three points clear of Juventus in fifth with two games to play and boast a better head-to-head record.

Gian Piero Gasperini’s outfit should maintain that margin when they travel to face a Genoa team mathematically safe from relegation after a 2-0 midweek win in Bologna.

These are two sides at polar opposite ends of Serie A’s expected goals (xG) chart. 

While Atalanta top the table with an average of 2.06 goals per 90 minutes, no team has a lower xG than the Grifone’s paltry 0.95 per 90.

Juventus vs Inter Milan (Saturday, 5pm)

Juventus will hope Inter Milan have taken their foot off the gas after winning the title — though Wednesday’s 3-1 victory over Roma suggests Antonio Conte’s men are aiming to finish the season in style.

The pressure is all on Juve, who need a win to stay in Champions League contention, but the Old Lady can always rely on superstar Cristiano Ronaldo to perform when it counts.

He delivered once again on Wednesday, becoming the fastest player to reach 100 goals for the club and helping them to three vital three against Sassuolo.

Roma vs Lazio (Saturday, 7.45pm)

Ciro Immobile’s last-gasp strike against Parma means Lazio are not mathematically out of the running for the top four — but it would take a remarkable collapse from those above them.

They will likely have to settle for Europa League football, while Roma still have work to do if they are to maintain their lead on Sassuolo and reach the inaugural Europa Conference League.

It means there is still plenty on the line in the Derby della Capitale but the form guide suggests the advantage is with the Biancocelesti.

They have won eight of their last 10 Serie A fixtures, whereas Roma have won just twice and lost six games over the same period.

Saturday's other game

Spezia vs Torino (2pm)

Fiorentina vs Napoli (Sunday, 11.30am)

Lorenzo Insigne and Victor Osimhen are hell-bent on firing Napoli into next season’s Champions League.

The duo have scored a combined eight goals across the Partenopei’s last five fixtures, helping them stretch an unbeaten run to seven games.

That goalscoring prowess is the hallmark of a Napoli team to have hit four or more goals on three occasions over the past month. They have also taken more shots than any other team in Serie A this season (16.89 per 90).

With Fiorentina’s dour goalless draw against Cagliari suggesting they may be well and truly on the beach, expect the Neapolitans’ fine form to continue.

AC Milan vs Cagliari (Sunday, 7.45pm)

AC Milan have exploded into life after their season-defining demolition of Juventus last weekend, followed by Wednesday’s stunning 7-0 romp against Torino.

They will face a sterner test in Sardinia, where Stefano Pioli’s men face a team unbeaten in six league games — four of which were wins. 

But there appears to be no stopping the Rossoneri and Ante Rebic in particular. The winger now has 11 Serie A goals for the season and four in his last two matches, including a 12-minute hat-trick in midweek.

With a crunch game against Atalanta to come on the final day, Milan will be determined to secure maximum points at the San Siro on Sunday.

And the good news is you can watch the game for FREE on the LiveScore app.

Sunday's other games

Benevento vs Crotone (2pm)
Udinese vs Sampdoria (2pm)
Parma vs Sassuolo (5pm)

Monday's game

Hellas Verona vs Bologna (7.45pm).