Mainz vs Union Berlin predictions: Struggling rivals set for cagey clash

James Milton

Spotlight

Jan Siewert has made Mainz hard to beat since his arrival as manager in November

- There have been under 2.5 goals in Mainz's last eight league matches
- Union Berlin have conceded only three first-half goals in their last six Bundesliga games
- Recommended bet: Under 0.5 Total Goals - 1st Half at 29/20 with LiveScore Bet

Union Berlin beat Mainz 4-1 in their opening game of the Bundesliga season but a run of nine defeats in their next 10 matches dragged them into serious relegation peril.

That was a huge fall from grace for a club who had finished fourth in the German top flight in 2022-23, qualifying for the Champions League for the first time in their history.

Despite winning two of their last four matches, Union remain uncomfortably close to the relegation zone and they will be targeting three points in the return fixture against Mainz, who are third from bottom with just 11 points from 17 matches.

Team news

Mainz striker Nelson Weiper is recovering from knee surgery and Jae-Sung Lee is at the Asian Cup with South Korea. Stefan Bell should be available after illness and Andreas Hanche-Olsen (ankle) will be assessed.

Union Berlin's Aissa Laidouni is on international duty and captain Rani Khedira missed last weekend's trip to Freiburg due to a calf problem.

Defensive midfielder Alex Kral should keep his place if Khedira is not passed fit.

The latest Mainz vs Union Berlin odds are available on LiveScore Bet

The stats

Five of Mainz's last seven Bundesliga matches have ended in draws.

Mainz have won only one of their 17 Bundesliga games this season.

There have been under 2.5 goals in Mainz's last eight league matches.

Union Berlin have failed to score in eight of their 10 league defeats this season.

Four of Union's 10 losses this term were by a 3-0 scoreline.

Union have conceded only three first-half goals in their last six Bundesliga games.

Nenad Bjelica has been tasked with turning Union Berlin's season around

Prediction

Mainz conceded 24 goals in their first nine games of the season, starting with their heavy defeat at Union Berlin, but they have tightened up significantly since the start of November, when they beat RB Leipzig 2-0.

That remains their only victory of the Bundesliga campaign and they need to start converting draws into wins if they are to pull clear of trouble.

However, Mainz have been hard to break down in recent months, letting in only five goals in their last eight league matches, and a tight contest is expected when they host Union, the team immediately above them in the standings.

Four of Mainz's last eight games have been 0-0 at half-time, while Union returned from the winter break with a goalless draw at Freiburg.

They also failed to score in their previous away match at Bochum, who won 3-0 and restricted their visitors to just two shots on target.

Bochum's opening goal came in the fourth minute of first-half injury-time so backing Under 0.5 1st Half Goals looks a good bet on Friday, as neither side will want to hand the early initiative to their opponents.

Back Under 0.5 Total Goals - 1st Half, available at 29/20 with LiveScore Bet