Leeds vs Southampton predictions: Goals on the cards at Wembley

- Both teams have scored in both regular season meetings of the two clubs
- Southampton had the joint-highest ratio of games where both teams scored
- Recommended Bet: Both Teams to Score

A whole season’s work will culminate in glory for either Leeds or Southampton in Sunday’s Championship play-off Final, but it will be a miserable return journey from Wembley for the losers.

Leeds had been on course to earn automatic promotion until a sequence of four defeats from the start of April left them needing Ipswich to lose on the final day to avoid the play-offs.

But Daniel Farke’s side regathered their momentum with a scintillating second-leg display to see off Norwich in the semi-final and will head to London with their confidence restored.

Southampton, meanwhile, overcame West Brom over two tense play-off games with the finishing prowess of top scorer Adam Armstrong a major factor in why they scored more goals than Leeds in the regular season.

Team news

Leeds will be unchanged from the play-off semi-final second leg against Norwich, with Georginio Rutter regaining his form at the perfect time to play behind Joel Piroe after the Dutchman was restored in attack.

Farke will be hoping to welcome back striker Patrick Bamford to the squad, but he is probably going to have to settle for a role on the bench.

Sam Byram is battling to overcome the hip flexor injury that kept him out at Elland Road last week, but Pascal Struijk will again be absent for the Whites.

For the Saints Gavin Bazunu and Juan Larios are out, along with Stuart Armstrong.

Che Adams and Ross Stewart could both feature, although there remains some doubt as to their fitness.

The stats

Leeds' 4-0 win over Norwich City in the second leg of their play-off semi-final tie was the biggest-ever victory by any team in a Championship play-off game (since 2004-05).

Daniel Farke is bidding to become the third manager to win promotion to the Premier League three times after Steve Bruce (4) and Neil Warnock (3), following his two title-winning seasons with Norwich City in 2018-19 and 2020-21.

However, Leeds have not won on either of their last two play-off final appearances or their last two trips to Wembley with the Whites’ last victory at the venue coming in the 1992 Charity Shield against Liverpool.

Southampton, meanwhile, have lost eight of their 10 previous matches at the national stadium, including each of their last five.

Since the Championship play-off final returned to the redeveloped Wembley in 2007, only six of the 17 contests have seen both teams score.

Prediction

Leeds and Southampton are two sides who can both look terrific on their day, but neither was quite able to put together enough 90-minute performances to make it into the top two.

Their flaws make this game very hard to predict in terms of an outright winner, but those same characteristics should ensure a thrilling game with each side enjoying spells of dominance over the other.

Leeds have lacked a Plan B this season and some of their most frustrating days have come when sides have shut up shop completely.

Russell Martin’s Saints are unlikely to do that and they will try to force Leeds into playing long through their excellent midfield press.

But that could open the way for the Whites’ attacking players to catch Southampton in transition, which will create opportunities for a few goals.

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