Hearts vs Istanbul Basaksehir predictions: Turkish delight in Edinburgh

It has been 18 years since Hearts last reached the group stage of any European club competition but manager Robbie Neilson will know that his side must treat their opening match against Istanbul Basaksehir like a knockout tie.

There is no wiggle room whatsoever in a tricky Europa Conference League Group A and while it is only matchday one of a six-game stage, this already feels like a must-not-lose encounter for the Jambos.

Their Turkish visitors have recent European pedigree, reaching the group stage of the Champions League two seasons ago — struggling in a group containing Paris Saint-Germain, RB Leipzig and Manchester United despite beating the latter in Turkey — and in 2019-20 Basaksehir made it to the last 16 of the Europa League.

But the even bigger threat in Group A comes from a Fiorentina side who are rightly favourites to top the section and are also third favourites for outright glory, understandably so given their relative heavyweight status at this level of European competition.

If Hearts lose their group opener in Edinburgh on Thursday evening, Jambos supporters will start to wonder if their latest European adventure is over before it has truly begun.

Team news

Robert Snodgrass arrived at Tynecastle in midweek but missed the UEFA registration deadline so will not feature in the Jambos’ European campaign.

Fellow new signing Orestis Kiomourtzoglou has been registered with UEFA but is still waiting on a work permit and cannot play for the club until approval arrives.

Midfielder Jorge Grant is suspended after getting sent off in the second leg of their Europa League play-off tie against FC Zurich, while first-team trio Beni Baningime, Liam Boyce and Kye Rowles are all absent through injury.

Defender Craig Halkett could return from injury to shore up a leaky backline.

Basaksehir manager Emre Belozoglu will not be on the touchline as he does not hold a UEFA-recognised Pro License so the former Newcastle and Inter Milan midfielder will be confined to a place in the stands.

He is also likely to be without statement signing Mesut Ozil. The former Arsenal man has struggled for fitness since his summer arrival and has played only a handful of minutes for his new club.

Mustafa Peksen is Belozoglu’s only confirmed absentee. The centre-back is closing in on a return from a ruptured cruciate ligament but is not yet ready to return.

The stats

Basaksehir are unbeaten in ten matches this term, beating Maccabi Netanya, Breidablik and Royal Antwerp in Europa Conference League qualifying while also winning three of their four Turkish Super Lig matches and keeping clean sheets in every domestic outing.

Going back into last season, that extends their unbeaten run to 18 matches, with the Istanbul side last suffering defeat in March.

Belozoglu’s men finished 2021-22 strongly to claim fourth place and were able to raise their game against the best sides in Turkey, winning four and losing only one of six meetings with teams who finished above them.

Hearts, on the other hand, took just four points from eight league meetings with Rangers and Celtic last season, losing to both teams three times in the league as well as suffering defeat in the Scottish Cup final to Rangers and getting knocked out of the League Cup by Celtic.

Neilson’s men have also suffered defeat in five of their last six matches this term, losing home and away to FC Zurich in the Europa League play-off and getting knocked out of the League Cup at home by struggling Kilmarnock.

Prediction

As third seeds in the group stage, Hearts knew they would have to play above themselves to reach the knockout rounds whatever draw they received.

However, kicking off at home against one of the competition’s most competitive dark horses was a seriously poor piece of luck as under-the-radar Basaksehir are not a big name but boast quality that is arguably on par with the most decorated teams in the competition.

The visitors showcased their potential in beating all of the big guns in last season’s Super Lig campaign and again demonstrated their quality against Royal Antwerp a fortnight ago when overcoming the Europa League regulars 3-1 in Belgium.

While glamour signing Ozil is likely to miss out, the attacking midfielder has yet to settle at the club so will not be missed.

Basaksehir are not short of forward quality, with Stefano Okaka a dangerous leader of the line at this level and Polish forward Patryk Szysz impressing alongside him following his summer arrival.

Brazilian full-backs Lucas Lima and Junior Caicara have also been given more license to attack in Belozoglu’s new-look 4-3-3, with a hardworking midfield three allowing the full-backs to bomb forward.

But it is Basaksehir’s defensive quality that makes them such a tough opponent, with the Turkish side conceding the joint-fewest goals in last season’s Super Lig and conceding just four times in ten outings this term.

Against a shot-shy Hearts side who have failed to score in four of their last five outings, it would be no surprise if the visitors walked away with another clean sheet and all three points.