Fulham vs Bournemouth predictions: Goals expected in lively Cottage clash

Gary O'Neil continues to defy expectations, with last weekend’s 2-1 victory over Leicester making it five Premier League matches without defeat for the interim Bournemouth manager.

There does remain a number of caveats to that run of results. 

The Cherries had to come from behind against Leicester and Nottingham Forest — who are bottom and second-from-bottom in the league — and they were comfortably outplayed at home in 0-0 draws against third-bottom Wolves and then erratic Brentford.

But what cannot be questioned is the commitment and fighting spirit that O’Neil has inspired within the Cherries' squad.

Bournemouth have arguably been second-best in all five games since their temporary boss took charge but the fact that they have yet to lose under him speaks volumes for a squad who had lost 9-0 in the game prior to O'Neil's promotion.

His side will need every last drop of that fighting spirit away at fellow newly-promoted side Fulham, who will be smarting after a series of questionable VAR decisions led them to defeat at West Ham last weekend.

That loss presented the Cottagers with their first back-to-back defeats of the season and manager Marco Silva will be looking for a response to ensure an annoying blip does not turn into a worrying slip.

Team news

Silva has question-marks next to a number of his Fulham players and could be denied up to six first-team members for this clash.

Midfielder Nathaniel Chalobah is a definite absentee as he serves the second of his three-match suspension, while winger Manor Solomon will also miss out as he recovers from surgery.

It is also unlikely that either left-back Layvin Kurzawa or attacker Willian will feature as they continue to recover from their respective calf injuries.

However, the key men for Silva to get out of the treatment room will be six-goal Aleksandar Mitrovic and defender Kenny Tete, but both players remain significant doubts for this weekend.

Bournemouth also have a number of players either out or verging on a return.

Long-term absentee David Brooks, captain Lloyd Kelly and winger Junior Stanislas are all close to returning but are all expected to miss out this weekend.

However, midfielders Ben Pearson and Joe Rothwell both returned to training last week so will be hoping to push for a place on the bench.

The stats

While Fulham pipped the Cherries to last season's Championship title, the pair drew both 2021-22 league meetings 1-1 and the Cottagers have won just one of the last 10 head-to-heads while Bournemouth have won five.

Fulham’s matches have averaged 3.56 goals per game this season and both teams have scored in 89% of their outings. 

Their 0-0 draw against Wolves — in which Mitrovic had a late penalty saved — was the only game in which both teams did not score.

Bournemouth's matches have not been as open but have still averaged 3.11 goals.

That average is boosted by their goal-heavy away displays — the Cherries' four Premier League road trips have returned 9-0 and 4-0 defeats to Liverpool and Manchester City, a 3-2 win at Nottingham Forest and a 1-1 draw in which Newcastle had a massive 19 shots.

Prediction

Fulham look the better side both on the underlying numbers and on the eye test.

However, they are hard to trust at odds-on given both their poor head-to-head record against Bournemouth and the fact that the Cottagers have started to find unlikely ways to lose matches while the visitors keep grabbing unexpected positive results.

The safer bet might be to go for a high-scoring affair.

Neither team is anywhere near rock-solid in defence, with Bournemouth the third-leakiest team in the top flight, conceding 20 goals, while Fulham have shipped 18.

Even in the potential absence of Mitrovic, Fulham have an array of attacking options as five other players have contributed their 14-goal tally. 

And Bournemouth are also starting to click in attack, netting six goals in their last four outings.

Backing both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at 21/20 looks a decent approach and one that would have paid out in eight of Fulham’s nine league games as well as in two of Bournemouth’s last four.