Brighton vs Tottenham predictions: Seagulls could add to Spurs' woes

Roberto De Zerbi enjoyed a fantastic debut as Brighton manager last Saturday, leading his new team to a 3-3 draw at Anfield after many pundits had written them off ahead of their trip to Liverpool. 

But rather than pinching himself after that game, De Zerbi would have been kicking himself that the Seagulls failed to take all three points from a match in which his players put together a hugely impressive all-action display against Liverpool. 

In sharp contrast, Tottenham’s weekend provided an altogether less enjoyable experience. Antonio Conte’s team produced a guileless performance devoid of adventure in the North London derby and could have no complaints to come away with a 3-1 defeat. 

With Emerson Royal sent off and barely a glove laid on bitter rivals Arsenal, Spurs supporters trudged home from the Emirates with very few positives to cling on to. 

So, given last weekend’s results, Saturday’s clash at the Amex Stadium takes on a particularly important feel. 

De Zerbi will be desperate to ride the wave of optimism that is propelling his new club forward and defeat in his first home game as Brighton manager would come as quite the dampener to the positive vibes. 

But defeat for Tottenham may start to get supporters muttering about exactly where they are heading under Conte — what had looked like an exciting season is in danger of falling flat. 

Brighton vs Tottenham (Saturday, 5.30pm)

Team news

De Zerbi has only one confirmed absentee with Jakub Moder out until the new year, but there are doubts over the availability of midfielder Enock Mwepu, who fell ill and was hospitalised during international duty and may again miss out. 

Conte could be without as many as five Tottenham players. 

Wing-back Royal serves the first of his three-match suspension while fellow defender Japhet Tanganga has picked up a knock in training which looks set to rule him out. 

The Italian will also be sweating over the fitness of centre-back Eric Dier, who played on after suffering a knee injury against Eintracht Frankfurt in midweek but was limping heavily after the match. 

Winger Lucas Moura will again miss out with an inflamed tendon but the more pressing issue will be Dejan Kulusevski’s hamstring injury, which looks likely to rule him out again this weekend. 

The Swede's linking play is key to Conte’s preferred 3-4-3 formation so the Italian may choose to switch to a 3-5-2 to get his misfiring frontline back on track. 

The stats

Brighton and Tottenham have traded blows in equal measure over recent campaigns, with the pair claiming a win apiece against each other in each of the past three Premier League campaigns. 

Spurs just edge the head-to-heads over that timeframe, as they won last season’s FA Cup fourth-round meeting with the Seagulls — a game in which two strong XIs delivered an entertaining clash that slightly flattered Conte’s men by ending 3-1.

However, no opponent has stifled Tottenham under Conte as effectively as Brighton, who restricted Spurs to just 0.4 expected goals as they beat them 1-0 in North London this April. 

That victory came towards the start of the Seagulls' run of 16 Premier League matches that has seen them lose just twice, draw five times and win nine, including victories over Arsenal and Tottenham as well as two defeats of Manchester United. 

Prediction

Brighton’s succession planning under Tony Bloom has been second to none, with multiple managers, staff and key players leaving over the past decade without affecting the club’s upwards trajectory. 

Even so, it would have been reasonable to expect the departure of manager Graham Potter — who had made a massive impact at the club over the past three seasons — to negatively impact the squad. 

Those concerns were swiftly dismissed with last weekend’s superb performance at Anfield, when the Seagulls really should have dealt Liverpool their first defeat in 27 Premier League home games. 

Nor was it a smash and grab by De Zerbi’s men, who would have been out of sight by half-time had it not been for the excellence of Liverpool goalkeeper Alisson, who made two big saves to keep the score down to 2-0 to Brighton after 30 minutes. 

De Zerbi has promised not to tinker too much with the foundations put in place by Potter but Brighton showed a noticeable increase in their high pressing at Anfield as they looked to force errors in the Liverpool backline. 

Playing through a high press has long been a problem for Tottenham, and while Conte’s passing patterns have helped reduce the team’s vulnerability in this area they still struggle to evade a well-organised press. 

That weakness against Brighton’s strength puts the Seagulls among Spurs’ trickiest opponents and with Conte’s men struggling for fluency, prices of 17/10 for a Brighton victory look too big to ignore.