Brentford vs Brighton predictions: De Zerbi poised for first win

Dan Sait
Spotlight
Roberto De Zerbi is chasing his first win as Brighton head coach
Roberto De Zerbi is chasing his first win as Brighton head coach

Roberto De Zerbi was desperately disappointed to lose his first home game as Brighton head coach, but the former Sassuolo boss will have been delighted with the Seagulls’ performances under him thus far.

A total of one point from two games might look underwhelming, but De Zerbi’s side were fully deserving of their draw at Liverpool and could argue they merited another point in last weekend’s 1-0 defeat to Tottenham.

Brighton outplayed their big-six opponents for significant spells of those two games and only a combination of bad luck and some wayward finishing denied the Italian a dream start.

But now an opportunity arises for De Zerbi’s reign to really get up and running when they visit a slightly out-of-sorts Brentford.

The hosts got their season off to a flyer with stunning victories against Manchester United and Leeds, but the matchday seven postponement and international break seems to have stalled the Bees’ progress.

Given the quality of opposition coming to west London this Friday evening, Brentford head coach Thomas Frank will know his side will have to be firing on all cylinders if they are to see off in-form Brighton.

Team news

Brentford centre-back Ethan Pinnock returned last weekend to make his first appearance of 2022-23, but he might have wished he had not after gifting Newcastle their fourth goal and then putting through his own net in a 5-1 rout. 

Whether Frank will opt to field the understandably rusty Pinnock is open to question but the Brentford boss is already without fellow centre-back Pontus Jansson and defensive midfielder Christian Norgaard, both of whom hope to return before the end of October.

Brentford attacker Keane Lewis-Potter remains out with ligament damage with no date yet placed on his return.

Brighton have been hit with the sad news that Enock Mwepu has retired from professional football at the age of just 24 due to a hereditary heart condition. The Zambian midfielder was emerging as a key player for the Seagulls but fell ill while on international duty, when the heart problem was discovered.

Asides from Mwepu, De Zerbi has only long-term absentee Jakub Moder unavailable. The Polish midfielder is unlikely to feature until 2023.

Ethan Pinnock endured a difficult return to action with Brentford last weekend
Ethan Pinnock endured a difficult return to action with Brentford last weekend

The stats

Last season saw these sides meet in the top tier of English football for the first time and Brighton took all six points, winning 2-0 at the Amex Stadium and 1-0 away in west London.

The Seagulls’ victory at the Gtech Community Stadium was one of seven Premier League away wins they enjoyed last term as they racked up an impressive 29 points on the road — only the top four collected more away points.

And the superb away form that Brighton built towards the end of 2021-22 has carried into the new campaign — their last nine league away games have seen the Seagulls beat Arsenal, Tottenham, Manchester United, Wolves and West Ham as well as draw at Liverpool and Leeds. One of only two defeats in that run came at Manchester City.

Prediction

Brentford are a hard team to gauge as they can be hugely impressive on their day — as seen in the 4-0 dismantling of Manchester United and 5-2 demolition of Leeds — but they can also throw in some woeful performances, as they did in last weekend’s 5-1 defeat to Newcastle.

However, the trajectory of Frank’s side is a concern and the absence of Norgaard seems to have seriously undermined their midfield stability —  the Bees have won only one of seven Premier League matches since defeating Manchester United, with Norgaard absent for most of those.

Brighton have deserved far more from their meetings with far better opposition than Brentford in recent matches and with Norgaard injured and the Bees struggling for form and confidence, De Zerbi’s men can take all three points at 11/8.

Tags

BrentfordBrighton & Hove AlbionPremier League