Aston Villa vs Zrinjski Mostar predictions: Villa fans in for another thriller

- Only one of Villa’s 11 games this season have seen under 2.5 goals
- Zrinjski have scored 12 goals in their last four outings
- Recommended bet: Aston Villa and over 3.5 goals

Aston Villa’s return to Europe after a 13-year absence did not go as planned, with a sloppy defensive performance in Poland contributing to a 3-2 defeat to Legia Warsaw.

That result means the Villans have plenty of work to do in a relatively strong Europa Conference League group that also contains AZ Alkmaar and Thursday’s visitors, Zrinjski Mostar.

The Bosnian outfit showed they are not just there to make up the numbers when beating Dutch side AZ 4-3 on matchday one, meaning Villa manager Unai Emery is likely to need to take this a little more seriously than he might previously have expected.

Team news

Aston Villa pair Tyrone Mings and Emiliano Buendia have both undergone knee surgery and are expected to be out for most of 2023-24.

Attacker Leon Bailey is unavailable with a thigh injury and left-back Alex Moreno is not likely to return until after the international break.

Moussa Diaby and Boubacar Kamara both came off early against Brighton last weekend, but should pass late fitness checks.

The stats

Zrinjski were 3-0 down at half-time a fortnight ago in their first-ever European group stage appearance, but fought back to beat AZ 4-3 in front of their own fans.

That victory has acted as a springboard for the Mostar outfit, who had not won back-to-back matches in 12 previous outings in 2023-24, but who have now won four on the spin, netting 12 goals in that run.

Villa have been slightly erratic themselves, with their last three wins each being followed by defeat. They will hope to break that cycle on Thursday, having thumped high-flying Brighton 6-1 at the weekend.

Only one of Villa’s 11 games this season has seen under 2.5 goals. Three have produced three goals, three have seen four and four have featured five goals or more.

Prediction

Even at this early stage of the season, Aston Villa supporters have been on something of a rollercoaster ride.

An opening day 5-1 thumping at Newcastle United was followed by impressive victories away at Chelsea and at home to Brighton, while there have been a couple of unexpected defeats dotted in between those highs and lows.

However, Emery will be largely pleased with what he is seeing from his players, with two of just four losses this term coming in lower-priority fixtures and the other two coming away from home against hosts expected to fight for a top-four finish.

Whether Emery can continue to treat the Europa Conference League as a low priority after that loss in Warsaw is doubtful however, as Villa supporters will not accept an early exit after having waited so long to return to Europe.

That could spell trouble for a Zrinjski side who showed plenty of spirit in fighting back from 3-0 down to AZ on matchday one, but who lack the class to match Villa.

Zrinjski profited from their Dutch visitors taking their eye off the ball on matchday one, but Villa will not be so careless, having already received a Group E wake-up call.

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