Croatia vs Italy predictions: Azzurri will make Croats crumble
- Italy only need a draw to finish second behind Spain
- Croatia must win this match to have hope of making knockout rounds
- Recommended bet: Back Italy to win
One of the elite nations will be eliminated from the European Championship on Monday when Italy and Croatia face off in Leipzig.
Though the Italians are the defending European champions they have done nothing to show that they could retain their crown, while Croatia look a shadow of the side that finished third at the 2022 World Cup.
Team news
Both Croatia and Italy are set to line up with 4-3-3 formations.
Italy have Gianluigi Donnarumma, Riccardo Calafiori, Bryan Cristante and Lorenzo Pellegrini on bookings going into their final group game.
Croatia coach Zlatko Dalic has played Josko Gvardiol and Ivan Perisic at left-back in his first two games, with Borna Sosa an option against the Italians.
The stats
Croatia have not lost any of their previous eight encounters with Italy, with four of those eight clashes having ended in 1-1 draws.
The defeat to Spain ended a seven-match unbeaten run for Italy.
Croatia were unbeaten in six games prior to this tournament and their loss to Spain.
Prediction
There have been issues with both nations’ performances at Euro 2024 so far, but of the two it would seem like Italy’s are the easier to fix.
After gifting an early goal in their opening game against Albania, the Italians played reasonably well as they fought back to win 2-1.
They looked toothless offensively when up against the Spanish, yet remained defensively solid against a team that have been one the best sides at this tournament.
Having a solid base from which to work from has always been the Italian way and they came into this competition off the back of keeping three consecutive clean sheets.
In contrast, Croatia have looked woeful defensively and though being ripped apart by the Spanish was somewhat excusable, there is no hiding place when the same thing happens against Albania.
Their manager Dalic played his best central defender Gvardiol at left-back in the first game, before giving the veteran winger Perisic that responsibility in the 2-2 draw with Albania.
Dalic made a double substitution at half-time in the latter match, which contributed to Croatia looking better going forward. Yet the Albanians remained dangerous and eventually scored a stoppage-time equaliser.
Unless Croatia can radically improve their defensive performance it is easy to imagine Italy soaking up their pressure and hitting them on the break through the likes of Federico Chiesa.
Italy are favoured to win this one and their odds are large enough to not have to overcomplicate matters.
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